New assessment of the Danish shale gas potential

04-12-2013

New estimate of the technical recoverable shalegas resource in Denmark announced by USGS at a meeting at GEUS.

Denmark has a significant shalegas potential. This is the conclusion of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). USGS estimates the mean technical recoverable gas potential from shales in Denmark to 186 Billion Nm3 gas (6.9 TCF). The resource is distributed with 67 Billion Nm3 gas (2.5 TCF) onshore and 119 Billion Nm3 gas (4.4 TCF) offshore. The estimate varies from a lower limit (P95) of 0 Billion Nm3 gas (0 TCF), since producible gas in the shales has not yet been proven, to an upper resource (P5) of 356 Billion Nm3 gas (13.4 TCF). USGS has used similar methodologies as for assessment of shale gas plays in North America and scientists from the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) has contributed to the geological analysis of the resource assessment.

The estimated technical recoverable shale gas resource is comparable to the amount of produced gas from the Danish part of the North Sea in the period 1972-2011 and twice the amount of the remaining reserve and conditional gas resource in the Danish part of the North Sea. In contrast to the resource estimates in the North Sea the estimated shalegas resource only reports the potential technical resource and does not take into account if the resource is economically viable.

The large uncertainty in the estimate reflects that the occurrence of shale gas in Denmark has not yet been proven and that the estimation of the gas content in the shales are highly uncertain. Shale gas exploration in Denmark is in its very early stages and new knowledge from wells is needed to better calibrate the resource estimation model and thus to reduce the uncertainty of the estimate.

The Advanced Resources International Inc. (ARI) assessed in 2013 on behalf of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) the global shale gas resource. For Denmark ARI estimated the technical shalegas resource to be 857 Billion Nm3 gas (32 TCF). The USGS estimate is significantly lower than the estimate presented by ARI. The estimated made by ARI and USGS reflect two different approaches and cannot be compared directly. The difference, however, mainly reflect that the USGS estimate is based on a much more detailed geological model of the subsurface of Denmark as compared with the geological model used by ARI and by a detailed benchmarking of the Danish shales to North America analogies.

Read: USGS's assessment of the Danish shale gas resource:pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2013/3103/

Read USGS Press release:www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3741&from=rss_home

Read: Advanced Resources International (ARI) analysis:
www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/

Read: GEUS-USGS Geological background for the Alum Shale assessment Factsheet 2013-3103:
GEUS_USGS_geological_background_for_the_Alumshale_assesment.pdf (pdf-file ~6,7 mb)

Take a look at the slides from the lectures:

Donald L Gautier: Undiscovered Resources in the Alum Shale of Denmark
www.geus.dk/geus-general/announcements/USGS_Don_Gautier_Undiscovered_Resources_in_the_Alum_Shale_of_Denmark.pdf (pdf-file ~3mb)

Peter Britze: Shale Gas studies in Europe and the Need for a Pan-European Coordinated Assessment
www.geus.dk/geus-general/announcements/GEUS_Peter_Britze_Shale_Gas_Resources_of_Europe.pdf (pdf-file ~3,4 mb)

Niels Schovsbo: Gas Resources in the Alum Shale: Geological Analysis
www.geus.dk/geus-general/announcements/GEUS_Niels_Schovsbo_Geological_Analysis.pdf (pdf-file ~1,8mb)

For additional information contact:

Head of Reservoir Department Peter Britze, GEUS
Cell phone: +45 91 33 37 51
E-mail: pbr@geus.dk

Senior researcher Niels H. Schovsbo, GEUS
Cell phone: +45 91 33 37 59
E-mail: nsc@geus.dk